Unpack the Guidebook

This guidebook provides structured summaries of evidence captured in the EGM on conflict and atrocity prevention. It presents findings by intervention-outcome cell, based on standardized coding of over 570 evaluations. The content is intended for analysts and decision-makers requiring methodologically consistent insights from empirical studies.

Interventions

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Geographic Scope

The EGM covers more than 80 countries, with a primary focus on low- and middle-income contexts. It incorporates diverse geographical and conflict settings, including ongoing conflict zones, post-conflict recovery environments, and fragile states with heightened risk factors. This distribution helps identify how context shapes intervention effectiveness and where additional research is necessary.

Intervention Themes

Interventions are grouped into thematic categories such as peacekeeping, economic programming, governance and legal reform, media, and community mobilization. Each category is analyzed across outcomes like violence reduction, participation, social trust, and institutional legitimacy. This thematic structure supports cross-comparison and evidence synthesis across sectors.

Evidence Quality

Each intervention-outcome combination is summarized in a cell, coded by effect size (positive, adverse, or no effect) and a confidence rating (low, medium, high). This structure provides a standardized view of robustness and reliability. While 16% of cells show large positive effects, 84% remain in the low-confidence category, emphasizing the need for more rigorous and targeted research.

Findings Overview

  • Peacekeeping operations are linked to reductions in violence and improved access to justice. However, these effects are generally small and contingent on specific mission design and mandate scope.

  • Media interventions, especially when paired with interpersonal engagement strategies like dialogue forums, have shown a positive influence on civic participation and accountability outcomes.

  • Community-based and land tenure programs show consistent, moderate-to-large effects across multiple outcome areas, including education access, food security, and community trust.

  • Evidence on conditional foreign aid is mixed. While some studies report improved democratic indicators, others highlight the risk of exacerbating instability depending on local implementation and context.

Access the full guidebook for cellwise summaries and methodology.